Experts attribute the scale of the power crunch to a host of issues, from high demand for energy to extreme weather.
Beijing's infrastructure-led economic recovery plan is very carbon intensive, according to Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Through the first five months of the year, power consumption in South China exceeded pre-pandemic levels — up 21% from the same period in 2019, according to the China Southern Power Grid, a big state-owned grid operator.
Coal is still involved in generating some 60% of the country's power. But the government is wary of that figure rising any higher — and so has been trying to reduce coal consumption as it tries to achieve its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060.
Limitations on coal usage, though, have coincided with a thirst for energy caused by economic rejuvenation, along with extreme weather. That's causing a growing tension between demand and supply.
Exceptionally hot weather in some areas has led to an increase in power demand, as people use more air conditioning and refrigeration.
Meanwhile, there's a huge strain on energy production. Renewable energy sources, such as hydropower, have been hobbled by drought. Major hydropower hub Yunnan province, for example, has had trouble retaining the water it needs in its reservoirs, according to Myllyvirta.
A nationwide safety check before the Communist Party's 100th anniversary on Thursday has led to massive suspensions of coal mines across China, exacerbating the strains on the coal supply.
The check comes after a jump in deadly coal incidents recently, in some cases due to illicit mining activity. To "create a harmonious environment" before the anniversary, many coal mines have been ordered to shut for inspections, according to local governments or state firms.
"Political stability is the top priority now until end of July," Qin said.
China has also struggled to shore up overseas supply. Coal is really expensive to import, according to Eurasia Group's Gloystein, who said that prices have more than doubled in the last year.
Gloystein also pointed out that trade tensions with Australia — which in 2019 was responsible for nearly 60% of China's thermal coal imports — have created a strain. Beijing imposed trade barriers against Australian coal last year after Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid-19.
Since then, China has imported more coal from Indonesia and South Africa to make up for the deficit, but that hasn't filled the gap.
"This has left some Chinese utilities short of fuel for their power stations," Gloystein said, adding that it's tough to get extra supply on short notice from places like Indonesia.
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